| 08 December 2009
If the Cincinnati Bengals win any of their final four games, they will clinch the AFC North championship.
The Bengals are 9-3, while Pittsburgh and Baltimore are struggling at 6-6. The best the Steelers and Ravens can finish this season is 10-6. And since the Bengals own the tiebreaker, that means the proverbial magic number for Cincinnati is exactly one. If the Bengals get to 10 wins, they are automatically in the playoffs as the division champ.
However, they have much bigger plans than that and I see no reason why they can't go into Minnesota this week and upset the 10-2 Vikings (the Bengals are 6.5-point underdogs). Brett Favre is having an excellent season - especially at the age of 40 - but isn't he due for one of those games when he throws a slew of picks? We've seen it from him several times during his illustrious career. (The Bengals also ushered in the Favre era in 1992 when he led a comeback victory over Cincinnati in Green Bay after coming in off the bench.)
It's going to be difficult holding down running back Adrian Peterson - especially with Domata Peko out (the Bengals' defensive tackle had arthroscopic knee surgery on Monday and will be out for the next 2-4 weeks) - but I think the Bengals' defense can cause some problems for Favre.
Minnesota also has an excellent defense led by end Jared Allen, who is probably going to be too much for Bengals right tackle Dennis Roland to handle. The Vikings also have the "Williams Wall" with run-stuffing defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Pro Bowl cornerback Antoine Winfield has been out lately with an injury and the Bengals better hope he will miss at least one more game.
This is a very good Vikings team, but the Bengals have the ability to go on the road and get a victory. They need to force Favre into making mistakes - which he has done throughout his career, but has largely avoided this year. Favre has never had a better supporting cast and that's why he's taking less chances. But he's still Brett Favre. There are going to be opportunities for the Bengals to get turnovers and they need to capitalize on those chances. Favre's favorite target is wide receiver Sidney Rice and it will be interesting to see if Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall - one of the best corner tandems in the NFL - will be able to shut him down.
If any defense can get it done against Favre, Peterson, Rice and the rest of the Vikings' offense, it's the Bengals. Cincinnati is putting up staggering defensive statistics this season, things Bengal fans have never seen before.
Three-fourths of the way through the regular season, the Bengals rank No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense (15.6 points-allowed per game) and No. 4 in the NFL in total defense (293.2 yards-allowed per game). You don't put up numbers like that by accident and the Bengals have proven they don't just have a good defense - they have a borderline great one.
However, there are some concerns from my point of view because injuries are starting to catch up to them. Peko is a huge loss because he's one of the best run-pluggers in the NFL (and also does a good job collapsing the pocket on passing plays). I like Tank Johnson and Pat Sims as the starters, but now there is zero depth behind them. Johnson has been battling injuries most of the season, so who knows how long he will last. Hopefully Peko is able to get back by the playoffs; I doubt he plays much if at all the rest of the regular season.
Safety is also a concern. I thought Roy Williams was a bigger loss than most people seemed to think, and now Chris Crocker is injured as well. He's not out for the year like Williams, but the Bengals are suddenly begging for quality depth at safety. Maybe rookie free agent Tom Nelson will continue to be a pleasant surprise (hey, Quan Cosby has proven that UFAs can make an immediate impact) and he did play well against the Lions last week.
However, I can't help but think the Bengals should have held on to Marvin White, who looked good last week playing against his former team. The Bengals cut the 2007 fourth-round draft pick this year and he was picked up by the Cowboys. Dallas released him and he was snatched up by the Lions, where he's carved out a starting role for himself.
Hindsight is definitely 20/20 with this one. I can't say I was upset when White was let go by the Bengals because he hadn't proven anything up to that point of his career - especially for someone drafted relatively high. But now, he would definitely look good on the roster as a top backup.
At it stands, Chinedum Ndukwe - a player that runs a 4.7 40 - is the best safety on the roster. (It would be Crocker, but he's hurt right now.) Consider me very concerned about the situation at safety.
Switching gears, I'm not at all concerned about the Bengals' running game. How could you be? They rank sixth in the NFL at 133.9 rushing yards per game. It was good to see Cedric Benson back in workhorse form last week and there is no question that him and Larry Johnson form an excellent 1-2 punch, something that the Vikings have not seen this year. Johnson looked great two weeks ago against the Browns and that kind of play will be needed if the Bengals are to pull off the upset.
Hopefully Carson Palmer continues to take a couple deep shots down the field as well. We haven't seen nearly enough of that this year. But if Winfield is out, the Bengals need to attack down the field. (Actually, Winfield's best attribute is his excellent tackling ability, but he's also solid in coverage.) Chad Ochocinco needs to be more of a big-play guy and less of a possession receiver.
The Bengals miss Chris Henry because he was definitely the best deep threat on the field. Andre Caldwell and Laveranues Coles are possession receivers. I like what they bring to the table for the most part, but there's no getting around the fact that the Bengals lack a deep threat this year. But Ochocinco needs to become that. He still has the speed to do that and no one in the NFL runs better routes.
While this week's game will be fun, next week against the Chargers will be even bigger because the Bengals could put themselves in a position to claim the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, which would mean a first-round bye.
But we'll worry about that next week. This week is about going up to the dome and beating Old Man Favre. Can one of the NFL's best defenses force him into a bunch of mistakes? Stay tuned, but I at least think it will be a close game with the Bengals giving the Vikings all they can handle. Don't forget how tough the Steelers and Ravens played the Vikings (the Steelers won in Pittsburgh, the Ravens lost in Minneapolis).
The Vikings might be the second-best team in the NFC, but the AFC is so much better than the NFC this year that it's absurd. This is certainly a winnable game for the Bengals.
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