| 11 February 2011
Let’s examine the five biggest question marks for the Cincinnati Reds as they get ready to convene for spring training:
Who will win the final two spots in the starting pitching rotation?
There are three locks (barring injury) with Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Then I think Travis Wood is pretty close to being a lock himself for the fourth spot. That leaves Homer Bailey and Mike Leake battling it out for the final spot, and since Bailey is out of options, it would likely be Leake who is sent to Louisville if it comes down to that.
However, these things have a way of working themselves out. How often does a Major League Baseball team going through an entire season without any injuries to their top-five starting pitchers? And there’s also bound to be someone amongst the previously-mentioned six starters who simply isn’t performing up to par.
If the Reds get through the season with all six of them healthy and all of them pitching well, that’s a problem they would like to have. As of now, there are no plans to put Leake in the bullpen if he doesn’t make the rotation. And yes, it would be strange for Leake to begin this season in Triple-A considering he skipped the minors and went directly to the Majors to begin his professional career last season after being the Reds’ first-round pick in the 2009 draft. Leake started off like gangbusters last year with a 6-0 record. But he eventually hit the rookie wall, and then the Reds moved him to the bullpen to decrease his workload. Eventually, the team shut him down for good in order to protect his arm for future seasons.
Who will be the leadoff hitter?
As it stands, it looks like free agent acquisition Fred Lewis will leadoff against right-handed starting pitchers. The left fielder bats left handed and it should be a good platoon situation for the Reds with Jonny Gomes starting against lefties.
But since Gomes isn’t going to bat leadoff, who will when Gomes is in the lineup?
There just simply aren’t many good options. I don’t want to see Brandon Phillips leadoff, and I really don’t want to see Drew Stubbs in that role. If I had to pick one or the other, it would be Phillips. And there will be times when Chris Heisey starts in left field against left-handed pitchers and he is a player that can bat leadoff if need be.
Who will earn the final bullpen spots?
The Reds will likely carry 12 pitchers, meaning there will be seven relief pitchers on the roster. Five relievers are locks to make the club in my estimation: closer Francisco Cordero, left-handed phenom Aroldis “The Cuban Missile” Chapman (who is the hardest-throwing human on the planet – clocked as high as 105 MPH last year), right-handed power pitcher Nick Masset, lefty Bill Bray and big righty Logan Ondrusek.
That leaves two spots open. One bullpen arm to keep an eye on is Jose Arredondo who had a terrific rookie season in 2008 with the Los Angeles Angels, but then suffered an arm injury in ’09 and has missed the last year-and-a-half. If he’s back to his old form or even close, it will be quite a boost to the Reds’ pen. Arredondo is one of those guys I’ll be keeping close tabs on during spring training.
I also think Jared Burton has a very good chance at making the team.
Other relief pitchers that are legitimate candidates to make the team include: Dontrelle Willis, Jordan Smith, Carlos Fisher and Danny Rey Herrera. And there might be some converted starters in the mix as well – guys like Sam LeCure, Matt Maloney and perhaps Bailey or Leake.
Who will be the starting shortstop? Or might there be a straight platoon?
The Reds are saying Paul Janish will be the starting SS, but I don’t think they would have signed Edgar Renteria unless they were planning on making him at least part of a platoon situation. If the team was convinced Janish was the answer, why even give Renteria $2.1 million to come to Cincinnati? One might argue that it was just for insurance, but I tend to think these guys will receive roughly the same amount of playing time. And it won’t surprise me if Renteria ends up winning the job to some degree.
What will happen with young sluggers Alonso and Francisco?
Will the Reds want to get third baseman Juan Francisco and first baseman Yonder Alonso everyday at-bats at Louisville? Or will they keep one (or both) on their 25-man roster so they have some pop off the bench? I think Francisco will likely start the year with the Reds and Alonso will start in triple-A. The Reds have a big need for a backup third baseman due to Scott Rolen’s injury concerns. Rolen is sure to get a lot of days off, meaning Francisco should get enough bats to stay somewhat sharp.
On the other hand, there is not much chance Alonso would get much playing time if he made the 25-man roster. Reigning NL MVP Joey Votto needs to play as much as possible. Therefore, look for Alonso to begin the season in triple-A. Sure would be nice to see him tear it up there for a couple months, forcing the Reds to bring him up, or perhaps trade him.
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