| 24 March 2010
During the early stages of spring training, it looked like Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman was going to force the Cincinnati Reds' hand.
There is no question in my mind the Reds' brass intended for Chapman to begin the 2010 season in the minor leagues. However, he was so lights-out impressive in his first three spring training appearances that many believed he was on the verge of locking down the job as the team's No. 5 starter to begin the season.
But then Chapman suffered some type of back injury this week - believed to be minor, but you never know with back strains. Regardless of the severity of the injury, I fully expect the team to be extra cautious with him, meaning you can look for him to start the season in AA Carolina or AAA Louisville. He's only 22 and has never pitched in the minors. He does have valuable experience on the Cuban national team, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to get him some seasoning in the minors before he faces Big League hitters in real games. And the back injury - even if it is minor as expected - could be the perfect excuse for the team to hold him back just a bit.
But why would they want to do that? Because of the complexities of his contract. I won't pretend to know every aspect of the 6-year, $30-million deal, but from my understanding it will be much-more beneficial in the long term from the Reds' standpoint if Chapman remains in the minors until sometime in June. That would allow Chapman to avoid what MLB calls "Super Two" status and he wouldn't become arbitration eligible until after the 2013 season.
In addition, Chapman wouldn't be able to become a free agent until after the 2016 season, making his current deal with the Reds actually a seven-year contract.
In contrast, if he begins the season with the Reds and sticks for the majority of the season, he would be arbitration-eligible after the 2012 season and would become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season.
So, think about that if you're general manager Walt Jocketty and the rest of the Reds' front office: If you are patient for two months, you not only get Chapman locked up for an extra year, you will get to pay him less over the course of the contract. It's a 6-year, $30-million deal only in theory. It's really a three-or-four-year deal (depending on when he makes his Reds' debut) and he then becomes arbitration-eligible after that.
If you have a headache now, you should. But the bottom line is that Chapman has been even better than advertised and Reds fans have reason to be excited. However, don't expect to see him until June.
If it does play out that way, Matt Maloney would likely get first crack at the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He would merely keep the seat warm for Chapman until June though (unless Maloney tears it up, which seems highly unlikely). I would still prefer to see Travis Wood in there (if they don't go with Chapman) but it's a safe bet that Wood begins the year at Louisville.
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