| 16 March 2010
Stubbs looked good in a cameo role in September last year after being called up to the Majors for the first time. However, the former first-round pick has struggled throughout his minor league career to put up good numbers, so it's foolish to think he's going to suddenly be a good hitter for the Reds. He is an excellent defender who is probably always going to have consistency problems at the plate.
Dickerson didn't exactly tear up the minors either, but I just think he's more ready for the job at this point. Stubbs has the higher ceiling and is the younger player, but looking at the 2010 Reds as an isolated case, I expect Dickerson to be the guy who get the majority of starts in center. He's nearly as good as Stubbs defensively and is not a liability at the plate. And considering Dusty Baker is going to bat the CF in the leadoff spot no matter what (hello, Willy Taveras!) offense is a big part of the job description for the Reds' centerfielder. If it were up to me, Stubbs would bat eighth when he's in the lineup ... at least until he's ready to hit at this level. But Dusty will never do that.
So, don't be surprised to see Stubbs struggle and Dickerson to get the majority of starts in center. A lot of people just assumed that Stubbs would start 140 games this season after he was called up last year and held his own. But September baseball with the pressure off is completely different than April and May when every team in baseball thinks they have a shot. OK, except the Pirates.
No. 5 starter - It is sure going to be tempting for the Reds to insert 22-year-old Aroldis Chapman as their No. 5 starter to begin the season. However, due to the wording in his contract, Chapman likely won't be called up until mid-May.
I'm also big on 23-year-old Travis Wood who tore up the minor leagues last year and is very close to being ready for the show. And 2009 first-round draft pick Mike Leake has also been impressive so far in the early stages of spring.
However, I also expect both of them to begin the season in the minors. Wood has an outside shot at making the team, but Leake hasn't even pitched a single inning of minor league ball. It would be very surprising if either of them made the team out of spring training. (And no, the Reds have not had this kind of starting pitching depth for years ... and all this without Edinson Volquez who is out until probably early August as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.)
Therefore, my money is on lefty Matt Maloney to win the final starting spot to begin the season as he keeps the seat warm for the electrifying Chapman.
Speaking of the Cuban Missile, things couldn't have gone any better for him up to this point. His effortless delivery and ability to hit 100 MPH consistently has Reds fans more excited than they've ever been about a pitching prospect. And although it's extremely early, Chapman's control (allegedly his one weakness) hasn't been bad either. He's a rangy 6-foot-4 lefty with a smooth delivery and he is going to be a nightmare for batters to face.
But it won't be until late May or June if I had to guess.
Jonny Gomes - Sounds like he's pretty close to locking down the Opening Day LF job. He will platoon with others throughout the season (also in the running in LF is Wladimir Balentien, Laynce Nix, Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier [who can play anywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher] and Juan Francisco) but Gomes has been impressive this spring and he's probably going to get the majority of at-bats this year in LF. Have to think he will start every game against lefties and will also have a good share of starts mixed in against right-handers.
Frankly, the Reds are fortunate that there wasn't another team out there that wanted Gomes this offseason. Once the Reds didn't offer him arbitration, I thought he was gone for sure. And now it looks like he's going to be in the everyday lineup and will provide the power-hitting right-handed bat that the team needs.
Utility man - There are several players vying for the role of "utility man" this spring. The three at the top of the list are Aaron Miles, Drew Sutton and Frazier. Miles is probably the favorite since the Reds are on the hook for $2.7 million this year due to his contract, however it wouldn't be a total surprise to see Sutton win the job. He had a very impressive season in the minors in 2008 and a bout with mono really affected his '09 season. Many have compared him to Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays and if he ends up being half that good Reds fans will rejoice.
Frazier is also an intriguing option because he has a good stick and can play so many positions.
Then again, money usually talks, so Miles is the safe bet to win the job. But it's going to be interesting to monitor this situation the rest of spring. The Reds' bench has been an extreme weakness in recent years and there is the chance that could change this season.
Winning record? Really? - Yes, really. The Reds haven't had one since 2000, but this is the year they are finally going to break through with more numbers in the W column than the column on the right. I predicted 83-79 a few weeks ago and I'm standing by that.
I think the Cardinals will win the NL Central, while the Reds will finish second and will be in the wildcard race. I look for the Cubs to really struggle this year. (Or is that just wishful thinking? No, their roster does not impress me at all this year.) The Brewers will be solid, but I like the Reds' roster a tad better. The Astros will likely struggle and the Pirates are the Pirates.
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