| 26 April 2010
This is exactly what I feared about Drew Stubbs this year: Not only would he struggle big-time at the plate, but Dusty Baker would insist on batting him leadoff.
So, not only is Stubbs a black hole at the dish, he gets more at-bats during most games than any other player on the team. That's comedy gold! (Well, except none of us Reds fans are laughing.)
No one should be surprised that Stubbs is struggling. I think people were fooled by his impressive play during his call-up late last season. However, that was a cameo role during the meaningless portion of the Major League Baseball season. A better indicator of how Stubbs was going to hit this year was studying his minor league numbers and they were mediocre at best.
You don't all of a sudden come to the Big Leagues and become a good hitter after being so-so in the minors. Even players that tear it up in the minors often struggle when they get a chance to play at the highest level of baseball in the world.
Is Stubbs a lost cause? No, certainly not. He's too young to say something like that. And there's no question the kid does flash a lot of potential from time to time and is blessed with exceptional speed. But if he's ever even an average hitter (notice I didn't even say "good") on the Major League level than I will be surprised. He does play a mean centerfield and his defense will help lengthen his career. However, as a hitter, one would be foolish to expect him to ever be anything more than average.
But he's got a hell of a long way to go to even get to average. He's a flat-out liability right now at the dish.
And no, it doesn't help that the Reds passed on Tim Lincecum to draft Stubbs in the first round (8th overall) of the 2006 draft. Lincecum went two picks later to the Giants and already has two Cy Young awards on his resume. And this isn't "hindsight is 20/20." A lot of Reds fans - myself included - wanted Lincecum to be the pick at the time. If you are a member of a Reds' message board, just bump a "2006 draft" thread to see what I mean. (FWIW, my personal favorite Reds message board is www.redszone.com.)
Anyway, we're all hoping for Stubbs to turn into a stud, but I just don't see it happening. At no point in his professional career - even when he was playing low-A ball with the Dayton Dragons - has Stubbs performed well as a hitter. That is not going to magically change, especially when he's facing the best pitchers on the planet.
As for the Reds' 5-4 win over the Padres on Sunday, it was big because it allowed Cincinnati to avoid being swept at home by San Diego for the first time since 2000. The Reds have already been swept once this year by a really bad team (Pirates) and it would have been a huge blow to their confidence for it to happen again against one of the worst teams in baseball.
No one is pleased with the start to this season, but it's not like they're out of anything with their 8-11 record. Let's be honest here: It's the National League and as long as the Reds are able to get to .500 (which obviously is a tough task for this team considering the results of the last decade) then they will be in the thick for at least the wildcard.
As for the starting pitching, wow, I couldn't have been more wrong. I think a lot of Reds' fans are in the same boat there - and there is the chance things will turn around - but the staff is a big liability right now. A far cry from the huge asset many expected it would be.
Other than some control issues, Aroldis Chapman has been lights-out good with Louisville in triple-A. I have to think he will be up by early June at the latest. But can the team really wait that long? And even Travis Wood and Matt Maloney might be upgrades over what fans are seeing right now from the staff. Aaron Harang is a shell of his former self and is one of the most-overpaid players in Major League Baseball, which is saying quite a bit. Bronson Arroyo is solid more often than not, but he will have days when teams tee off on him like they are taking batting practice. Johnny Cueto burst on the scene two years ago as an impressive 22-year-old rookie. Two years later, he has shown no marked improvement. Zero. That needs to change ASAFP. And then Homer Bailey will have his moments when he looks great, but he will likely be inconsistent all season and is likely a year or two away from really being a reliable member of the staff. He's at least solid though.
I still say this has the makings of the best Reds starting pitching staff of my lifetime, but it sure isn't panning out that way through the first 19 games.
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