It’s like Christmas in April. Yes, I love the NFL Draft far more than the average human should.

The 2013 version of the draft kicks off Thursday with the first round. Rounds 2-3 will follow on Friday and the proceedings will conclude on Saturday with rounds 4-7. (Is this a good time to mention I like the relatively-new format that the NFL uses? It’s better than doing rounds 1-3 on Saturday and then rounds 4-7 on Sunday as in years past. Making the draft a prime-time event on Thursday and Friday night, and then coming back with a full day of activities on Saturday was a genius move.)

The Cincinnati Bengals find themselves in a favorable situation in this year’s draft overall, thanks in large part to the extra second-round pick they have (No. 37 overall) which they received as part of the Carson Palmer deal. And for one last time, on behalf of every Bengal fan on the planet: Thank you Oakland Raiders for making that boneheaded trade! This will be the final of the two picks the Bengals received for a washed-up quarterback as they also hauled in cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick in the first round last year. He should be ready to heavily contribute and perhaps push for a starting spot after his “redshirt” season of 2012.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the Bengals’ biggest needs and how things might transpire later this week.

The four biggest needs on the team are, in order, safety, right tackle, running back and linebacker.

At safety, the Bengals would love to land Texas’ Kenny Vaccaro with the No. 21 pick of the first round, but he’ll likely go a few picks before Cincinnati is on the board. Vaccaro (6-0, 214) has been linked to the Dallas Cowboys for weeks and unless that is some type of smokescreen on Jerry Jones’ part, fans can expect Vaccaro won’t be a Bengal. However, if he’s available, I hope the Bengals take him. The team desperately needs a starting safety to pair with Reggie Nelson.

The other top safety available is Jonathan Cyprien from Florida International. Cyprien (6-1, 217) was originally thought to be a second-round pick – and might still end up going in that round – but some recent mock drafts have projected him as a late first-rounder. If the Bengals don’t get Vaccaro at 21 and Cyprien is available at 37, look for the Bengals to pounce on him.

At right tackle, Andre Smith is an unrestricted free agent and there is a chance the Bengals will re-sign their 2009 first-round pick. However, there appears to be just as good or better of a chance that Cincinnati will look elsewhere and take a RT early in the draft. Could another right tackle from Alabama – DJ Fluker – be available when the Bengals are on the board in the first round? It’s very doubtful, but he’d be a really nice fit in Cincinnati if he’s sitting there at 21 and Smith remains unsigned. Again, Fluker lasting that long appears to be a long-shot at best though.

Much like safety, it’s a strong/deep year for prospects at the OT position. There could be three offensive tackles taken in the top-12 picks, including the No. 1 overall projected player in the draft – Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M – along with Eric Fisher from Central Michigan and Lane Johnson from Oklahoma. Then Fluker is expected to go soon after Johnson. The fifth-best tackle on the board appears to be Justin Pugh from Syracuse, who could be an option with one of the Bengals’ second-round selections. Cincinnati is also reportedly keeping a close eye on Ohio State’s Reid Fragel, who is widely projected as a third-rounder, but could sneak into the latter stages of the second round.

RB Needed

Now let’s talk about the running back position. I definitely expect to see the Bengals use one of their first two picks on a running back. The best back in the draft appears to be Eddie Lacy from Alabama and I think there’s a very realistic possibility he lands in Cincinnati if guys like Vaccaro and Fluker aren’t available when the Bengals are on the clock in the first round. If the Bengals don’t get Lacy at 21, no way he’ll still be around when they pick again at 37.

Therefore, another option at the RB spot might be Montee Ball of Wisconsin who is projected as a second-rounder. I think he’s highly underrated. Neither Lacy nor Ball are burners, but they’re effective, tough backs, and they each have far more big-play ability than current Bengals starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis. OK, that’s not saying much, but the bottom line is that I think Lacy and Ball will be good NFL backs and the Bengals could end up taking one of them somewhat early. And if the Bengals don’t take a running back with one of their first two picks, they’ll probably take one later in the second round (No. 53 overall). Could Ball fall that far? I doubt it, but if he does and the Bengals haven’t snatched up a back yet, look for them to take the former Badger.

Let’s Not Lose Sight Of This…

One thing that might be getting overlooked is that Bengals still need a linebacker. Rey Maualuga is still penciled in as a starter (I apologize if you just face-palmed yourself so hard that you broke your nose) and while we all love the James Harrison signing, he’ll be 35 in May, has experienced trouble with his left knee the last two seasons and has never played the strong-side (SAM) linebacker spot in a 4-3 defense (although Mike Zimmer and the Bengals do mix things up and play some 3-4 as well).

Vontaze Burfict is the only long-term certainty in the group – and calling him a certainty might be a bit premature to be honest. I think he’ll be able to back up his surprisingly-great rookie season with another good year, but stranger things have happened. Yes, it was mostly due to off-field concerns, but Burfict was an undrafted free agent. It’s not like he was some sure-thing as soon as he joined the team. He needed to prove himself and he still needs to put up consecutive good seasons to really solidify himself as one of the best young linebackers in the game.

Anyway, the bottom line is that the Bengals need to find a linebacker in the draft that can at least add depth and help them right away in 2013. I certainly hope they take a LB with one of their top-four picks, as long as they don’t reach for anyone.

Interestingly, a few analysts have predicted that the Bengals will land Alec Ogletree. He does have all the makings of a traditional Bengals’ pick, does he not? He’s from the unofficial Triple-A affiliate – the Georgia Bulldogs – he has immense talent and his stock might be slipping a bit due to off-field concerns. Match made in heaven, right? In Mel Kiper’s most-recent mock draft on ESPN.com, he has Ogletree going to Cincinnati.

But all joking aside, the Bengals have cleaned up their act as far as drafting questionable characters in recent years. Unless they are absolutely convinced Ogletree is a star in the making, they probably won’t be willing to risk using their first-round pick on him. Then again, if some of the players they really want like Vaccaro and Fluker are off the board and Ogletree is sitting there at 21, it certainly wouldn’t be a shock to see the Bengals take him.

One final thought while we’re talking about linebackers: Please don’t take Manti Te’o. Not only would he be a distraction, he’s extremely overrated. I hope some team is foolish enough to burn a first-round pick on him; I just hope it isn’t the Bengals. Kiper – a noted Notre Dame homer – has Te’o going with the No. 20 pick of the first round to the Chicago Bears. Yes, exactly one spot ahead of where the Bengals pick. Then again, Kiper is on an island here. I haven’t seen anyone else predict Te’o will go that high recently.

That’s all for now from here on the observation deck. Definitely looking forward to the best event in sports that doesn’t involve an actual sporting event being played.

The Cincinnati Reds won a whopping 97 games last year and expectations are even higher entering the 2013 season.

While I have no doubt the Reds are a better team, I don’t think they’ll reach their win total of last season. A lot went right for them during the 2012 regular season when they didn’t have a starting pitcher miss a start and their run-differential of plus-81 reflected a team that should have been more in the 90-win range. The Reds won their second NL Central championship in the last three years – besting second-place St. Louis by nine games – but the Cardinals had a win-differential of plus-117.

All that being said, the Reds don’t need to win 97 games to repeat as Central champs and get back in the playoffs. Anything at or above 92 wins should do the trick and my prediction for the Reds’ 2013 record is … drumroll please… 94-68.

I have the Cardinals as a strong second-place in the division, I think the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates have solid clubs and will battle for third (or perhaps higher) all season, and I think the improving Chicago Cubs will pull up the rear.

As for the Reds, they are incredibly better on paper this year simply due to the arrival of Shin-Soo Choo and the departure of Drew Stubbs. That’s like going from the Octomom to Kate Upton.

The Reds’ leadoff hitters combined for an on-base percentage of .254 last year. Just how off-the-charts awful was that? It was the worst by a team since the 1981 Blue Jays who had a .238 OBP from the leadoff spot. (Credit for the previous stat: Reds.com.)

So, you’re going from a historically-bad performance from the leadoff hitters to a guy in Choo who is an accomplished hitter. To be clear, he’s not great, but he’s pretty damn good. He has a career on-base percentage of .381 (.373 last year) and a career OPS of .847 (.815 last year). It does concern me a little bit that Choo’s numbers dropped off the last two years – especially in 2011 – but that was probably due to a wrist injury he suffered in ’11. Bottom line: The Reds made a tremendous upgrade to their lineup when they acquired Choo from the Cleveland Indians and I think he’ll be just fine defensively in centerfield.

The other story of note offensively is whether first baseman Joey Votto can return to MVP form and things are looking good thus far. Votto is hitting .340 this spring (1.119 OPS) with four home runs and 13 RBIs. The knee injury that likely prevented him from winning the 2012 MVP (he was the clear frontrunner when he went down) appears to be a thing of the past, but Reds fans will hold their collective breaths until they see Votto raking on a regular basis when the games actually count once again.

The starting rotation returns intact and word is Mike Leake looks like a new man. He looked so good during the spring the team decided to leave Aroldis Chapman in the closer’s role, which I discussed in my previous blog post.

The Reds had the second-best team ERA in all of baseball last year – behind only the Washington Nationals – and I expect them to pick up right where they left off. The rotation should be just as good – although it’s foolish to think they’ll make it through 162 games without an injury to one of the five starters again – and the bullpen should be the best in baseball.

As of this post, the Reds had not made the final decisions on their Opening Day roster. But here is one man’s opinion of how the roster will shape up, including my prediction for the lineup and more.

 2013 CINCINNATI REDS

Lineup

1.      Shin-Soo Choo – CF

2.      Brandon Phillips – 2B

3.      Joey Votto – 1B

4.      Ryan Ludwick – LF

5.      Jay Bruce – RF

6.      Todd Frazier – 3B

7.      Ryan Hanigan – C

8.      Zack Cozart – SS

Reserves

Chris Heisey – OF

Devin Mesoraco – C

Jack Hannahan – 3B

Xavier Paul – OF

Cesar Izturis – SS

Starting Rotation

1.      Johnny Cueto – RH

2.      Mat Latos – RH

3.      Homer Bailey – RH

4.      Bronson Arroyo – RH

5.      Mike Leake – RH

Bullpen (need to cut one)

Aroldis Chapman (closer) – LH

Jonathan Broxton – RH

Sean Marshall – LH

Sam LeCure – RH

JJ Hoover – RH

Manny Parra – LH

Jose Arredondo – RH

Alfredo Simon – RH

Likely To Begin Season On DL

Jason Donald – 2B/SS

Nick Masset – RHP

Record Prediction: 94-68 (first in NL Central)

Playoff Prediction: Win divisional series, lose in NLCS to Nationals

Aroldis Chapman turned in one of the best seasons by a closer in MLB history last season when he saved 38 games (in 43 opportunities) struck out an amazing 122 batters in 71.2 innings, had an ERA of just 1.51 and a WHIP of merely 0.81.

Interestingly, the only season by a closer since 2004 that was on par or better than what Chapman accomplished last season … happened in the exact-same year. Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves turned in these numbers in 2012: 42 saves (45 opportunities), 116 K, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, 0.65 WHIP.

Eric Gagne won the Cy Young award in 2003 with the LA Dodgers when he converted all 55 of his save ops. (Steroids are a wonderful thing!) But since then, no one has approached what the Cuban Missile and Kimbrel have accomplished.

So, a lot of people said the Cincinnati Reds would be crazy to move Chapman out of the closer’s role. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Others countered that it’s foolish to use a talent like Chapman – who signed with the Reds in 2010 with the intentions to be a starter – for only 70 innings per year when you could use him for 150-180 innings. Or even 200 innings in future seasons. (No way he would have reached anywhere close to 200 in 2013.)

And the Reds’ brass seemed to agree with the latter assessment. When they signed Jonathan Broxton to a three-year, $21-million contract during the offseason, that locked it up as far as I was concerned. Chapman was definitely moving to the rotation.

General manager Walt Jocketty – who has done a great job since taking the reins in Cincinnati in April of 2008 – even said as much. Jocketty was quoted many times over the winter that the Reds intended to move Chapman into the starting rotation and Broxton would take over as the closer.

However, it wasn’t just people from the outside that chirped that the Reds were making a bad decision in moving Chapman from a role where he had already proven he could be ultra-successful. (Literally everyone on MLB Network agreed he should remain as a starter. Most Reds beat writers also questioned the move.)

No, manager Dusty Baker was lockstep with them in that he preferred Chapman as a closer. Even Chapman told reporters – via translator Tomas Vera – that the bullpen is where he wanted to be.

I still didn’t think too much of it. No way a shrewd GM like Jocketty would pay Broxton an average of $7 million per year to be a set-up man.

Or maybe he would.

Last Friday, the Reds announced that they would in fact keep Chapman in the closer’s role and would keep Mike Leake as the No. 5 starter.

Last year, the Reds made it through the regular season without any of their starting pitchers getting injured. (Course, in a strange twist of fate, they couldn’t make it out of the first inning of their first playoff game without ace Johnny Cueto suffering an ailment.) If they think that is going to happen again they are out of their collective minds.

Now, to be fair, Leake is pitching very well this spring and I’ve said all along it’s too early to give up on the 2009 first-round draft pick. He completely skipped the minors and was in the process of tearing up MLB as a rookie in 2010. However, he fell off big-time the second half of that season and hasn’t been the same since. Insiders say he’s regained his command while adding a few MPH on to his below-average fastball. (Maybe it’s up to average now!)

There is no question the Reds have one of the best rotations in all of MLB with Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Leake. However, what if one of them gets hurt this year, which is bound to happen?

I would have liked to see the Reds roll the dice and move Chapman to the rotation, but at the same time I’m not all that bothered by this decision. If one of the starters does get hurt, theoretically the team could then move Chapman to the rotation and Broxton to the closer’s role. But a more-likely scenario would be them using someone from Triple-A Louisville. A young guy like Tony Cingrani or Daniel Corcino, or a veteran like Armando Galarraga.

The biggest problem I have with the Chapman decision is the Reds seemed to be “all in” on moving him to the rotation when they forked out all that coin for Broxton. That’s $21 million that could have been used in a much-better way if the team was going to keep Chapman in the ‘pen.

Of course, the Reds will have the best bullpen in baseball this year. There is that.

And last time they had an incredibly “nasty” bullpen, things worked out pretty well in Cincinnati.

I’ll be back later in the week with my roster breakdown and prediction for the Reds’ 2013 record. It’s hard to be believe Opening Day against the Angels (yes, the Angels) is less-than a week away.

With the 2013 Major League Baseball season nearly upon us, let's take a look at one man's opinion on who the top-20 prospects in the Cincinnati Reds organization are and why. Note: prospect means they're still considered a rookie by MLB standards or are still in the minors.

Top 20 Reds Prospects

1.      Billy Hamilton – CF – Combined 2012 numbers at High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola: .311 batting average, 2 home runs, 45 RBIs, 155 stolen bases (in 192 attempts), .830 OPS, 512 at-bats, 22 doubles, 14 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 22. Originally acquired: Second-round of 2009 draft (No. 57 overall). Comment: Shattered the all-time professional baseball record with the incredible 155 steals. Will move from shortstop to centerfield in 2013 (played CF in the Arizona Fall League in 2012). A switch-hitter who has learned to work the count and take a walk. Although he won’t take over as the starter until 2014, there is little question he is the Reds’ CF of the future. The short-term question is whether he begins the 2013 season in Pensacola or Louisville.

2.      Tony Cingrani – LHP – Combined 2012 numbers at Bakersfield and Pensacola: 10-4, 1.73 ERA, 146 innings, 98 hits, 172 strikeouts, 52 walks, 25 starts, 1 relief appearance. Major League stats: 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 4 hits, 9 strikeouts, 2 walks. Age by 2013 opener: 23. Originally acquired: Third-round of 2011 draft (No. 114 overall). Comment: What an absolute steal Cingrani has turned out to be. A big, hard-throwing lefty with good command? Yes, please. There is still some debate on whether he will be a starter or reliever on the MLB level – since he doesn’t have a wide-array of pitches – but the bottom line is that he’s dominated at every level since making his pro debut in the summer of 2011. He’ll likely begin the 2013 season as a starter at Louisville and it will be very interesting to see how he performs. I like the fact that he got his feet wet at the MLB level in September and didn’t look out of place in the least.

3.      Daniel Corcino – RHP – 2012 Numbers at Pensacola: 8-8, 3.01 ERA, 143.1 IP, 111 H, 126 K, 65 BB, 26 starts. Age by 2013 opener: 22. Originally acquired: Signed as international free agent in 2008 (Dominican Republic).  Comment: Widely considered the Reds’ top pitching prospect entering 2012, hopes are still very high for Corcino. Cingrani’s rise is no knock on Corcino, it just means the Reds have two enticing pitching prospects that are very close to making a big impact at the MLB level. Corcino has been described as a poor-man’s Johnny Cueto and I think all Reds fans would take another pitcher somewhat like Cueto, even if Corcino likely will end up being a step down from his fellow countryman. Like Cingrani, I look for Corcino to begin the 2013 season helping lead the rotation in Triple-A Louisville.

4.      Robert Stephenson – RHP – Combined 2012 numbers at High-Rookie Billings and Low-A Dayton: 3-4, 3.18 ERA, 65 IP, 54 H, 72 K, 23 BB, 15 starts. Age by 2013 opener: 20. Originally acquired: First-round of 2011 draft (No. 27 overall). Comment: The Reds are bringing the prized prospect along slowly, but the early returns have been very promising. He struggled after getting called up from Billings to Dayton, but he throws hard (93-96 MPH), has good command and has a good repertoire of pitches. I look for him to start the 2013 season in Dayton and will likely get called up to high-A Bakersfield by midseason at the latest. Or if he’s doing well enough, perhaps he’ll skip High-A and will go directly from Dayton to Double-A Pensacola.

5.      Jesse Winker – OF – 2012 numbers at Billings: .338 BA, 5 HR, 35 RBIs, 1 steal, .943 OPS (40 BB, 50 K), 228 ABs, 16 doubles, 3 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 19. Originally acquired: Supplemental first-round of 2012 draft (No. 49 overall). Comment: Those stats are so damn beautiful. I mean, look at those bad boys. An 18-year-old who absolutely raked during his first season in pro ball, and walked almost as much as he struck out? Definitely my favorite pick of the 2012 draft so far. Hopefully he starts 2013 out at Dayton and I would be shocked if he didn’t. Projects as a starting corner outfielder for the Reds one day.

6.      Henry Rodriguez – 2B/3B – Combined 2012 numbers at Pensacola and Triple-A Louisville: .282 BA, 5 HR, 36 RBIs, 8 steals, .680 OPS, 362 at-bats, 17 doubles. Major League stats: .214 BA, 0 HR, 2 RBIs, (3-for-14). Age by 2013 opener: 23. Originally acquired: Signed as international free agent in 2007 (Venezuela). Comment: It was big for H-Rod to get the MLB experience that he did at the end of last season. He shows good promise at the plate and appears to be a guy that can be a solid backup for Brandon Phillips at second base and also fill in for Todd Frazier at third. That said, I look for Rodriguez to begin the 2013 season at Louisville, playing mainly third.

7.      Nick Travieso – RHP – 2012 numbers at Low-Rookie AZL Reds: 0-2, 4.71 ERA, 21 IP, 20 H, 5 BB, 14 K, 8 starts. Age by 2013 opener: 19. Originally acquired: First-round (No. 14 overall) in 2012 draft. Comment: Travieso is a fireballer who has been clocked as high as 99 MPH on the gun. He doesn’t throw nearly that hard usually, but he can get it up in the mid-90’s somewhat consistently. He didn’t put up impressive stats during his first summer in pro ball, but unlike Stephenson, at least he got some starts under his belt the same year he was drafted. He will likely wait it out in 2013 until Billings’ season begins. I just don’t see him being ready to start the year at Dayton.

8.      Kyle Lotzkar – RHP – Combined 2012 numbers at Bakersfield and Pensacola: 7-6, 4.55 ERA, 112.2 IP, 99 H, 63 BB, 123 K, 23 games, 22 starts. Age by 2013 opener: 23. Originally acquired: Supplemental first-round pick in 2007. Comment: Ugh. Talk about a disappointing season from Lotzkar. It’s hard to believe he was actually selected to play in the Future’s Game in 2012, although his numbers were better at that point in the season. However, at least he stayed healthy for a change and he does appear to have a high ceiling, keeping him as a top-10 prospect within the organization for now. It wouldn’t shock me to see Lotzkar start the year in Pensacola in 2013, but I would bet he’ll begin the season at Louisville. Is he ready for Triple-A though? That’s a big question.

9.      Neftali Soto – 1B – 2012 numbers at Louisville: .245 BA, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 2 SB, .713 OPS, 465 ABs, 30 doubles. Age by 2013 opener: 24. Originally acquired: Supplemental third-round of 2007 draft. Comment: He clubbed 31 home runs in just 396 at-bats in 2011 (mostly at Double-A) to lead all minor league players in the Reds’ organization, but struggled making the transition to Triple-A and his numbers plummeted. There’s no question he’ll repeat a year at Louisville. He’s like a kid getting held back in school. I still have hopes he can be a solid long-term backup for Joey Votto and provide some pop off the bench for the Reds (or become a nice trading chip). If he performs well early in 2013 at Louisville, he might get his shot sooner rather than later.

10.  Tucker Barnhart – C – Combined 2012 numbers at Bakersfield and Pensacola: .247 BA, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 steal, .693 OPS, 328 ABs, 4 doubles, 1 triple. Age by 2013 opener: 22. Originally acquired: 10^th round (No. 299 overall) of 2009 draft. Comment: Known more for his defense than offense, which better be the case after looking at the above stats. Actually, Barnhart has held his own pretty well offensively considering his age, but questions remain as to whether he’ll ever hit well enough to play in the Big Leagues. There is no question about his defense though.

11.  Ismael Guillon – LHP – Combined 2012 numbers at Billings and Dayton: 6-1, 2.38 ERA, 75.2 IP, 61 H, 31 BB, 90 K, 15 games, 14 starts. Age by 2013 opener: 21. Originally acquired: Signed as international free agent (Venezuela). Comment: How could you possibly not be excited about a left-handed pitcher with those numbers at that age? Guillon will likely start the 2013 at Dayton, but a midseason promotion to Bakersfield wouldn’t be surprising. Can he piece together two good seasons in a row? If he can, he will skyrocket on everyone’s prospect list.

12.  Kyle Waldrop – OF – 2012 numbers at Dayton: .284 BA, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 10 steals, .767 OPS, 416 ABs, 21 doubles, 6 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 21. Originally acquired: 12^th round of 2010 draft. Comment: Waldrop continues to get better and better. I’m excited about him and think he’ll eventually be a Major League player. And don’t look too much into him being “only” a former 12^th-round pick. The reason he lasted that long was because everyone thought he would go to college. The Reds had to offer him a pretty penny to sign. But they did, he accepted and he’s living up to the hype. Look for him to begin 2013 at hitter-friendly Bakersfield where his already-solid numbers could improve exponentially.

13.  Tanner Rahier – 3B – 2012 numbers at AZL Reds: .192 BA, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 5 SB, .577 OPS, 193 ABs, 9 doubles, 1 triple. Age by 2013 opener: 19. Originally acquired: Second-round of 2012 draft (No. 78 overall). Comment: Those stats are brutal by any measure, but he was considered a steal in the second round. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now since it was a small sample size and his first taste of pro ball.

14.  Dan Langfield – RHP – 2012 numbers at Billings: 3-0, 2.68 ERA, 37 IP, 27 H, 17 BB, 54 K, 15 games, 5 starts. Age by 2013 opener: 22. Originally acquired: Third-round of 2012 draft (No. 109 overall). Comment: The third-round has sure been a good time for the Reds to take college pitchers in recent years. They traded two former third-rounders – Zach Stewart in 2009 in the Scott Rolen deal and Donnie Joseph in 2012 in the Jonathan Broxton deal – but Cingrani and Langfield remain. Langfield was considered great value in the third round and he proved it with his impressive strikeout numbers (and solid numbers overall). I look for him to begin the 2013 season in Dayton and it will be interesting to see how he performs for the Dragons.

15.  Donald Lutz – 1B/LF – Combined 2012 numbers at Bakersfield and Pensacola: .269 BA, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, .852 OPS, 416 ABs, 25 doubles, 1 triple. Age by 2013 opener: 24. Originally acquired: Signed as undrafted free agent in 2007. Comment: Lutz will be looking to follow in Ryan Hanigan’s footsteps and eventually make the Reds’ team as a former undrafted free agent. It’s one thing to go undrafted in the NFL where there’s seven rounds, or the NBA where there’s just two. But in MLB with a robust 50 rounds? Not many undrafted players make it, but Lutz appears to be one of the exceptions to the rule. He didn’t hit well after getting promoted to Pensacola in 2012 after raking at Bakersfield, but he’ll get another shot with the Blue Wahoos in 2013.

16.  Ryan LaMarre – CF – 2012 numbers at Pensacola: .264 BA, 5 HR, 32 RBIs, 30 SBs, .708 OPS, 482 ABs, 22 doubles, 3 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 24. Originally acquired: Second-round of 2010 draft. Comment: I’m not a big fan of LaMarre, who barely has any power and doesn’t get on base enough. He’s excellent defensively though and will likely be a backup Major Leaguer one day. It will be interesting to see what the Reds decide to do with LaMarre and Hamilton this year. They can’t be on the same team since they’re both centerfielders and both need as much playing time as possible. Perhaps the Reds will take things slowly with Hamilton and will start him at Pensacola, which would allow LaMarre to roam CF for Louisville.

17.  Yorman Rodriguez – CF – Combined 2012 numbers at Dayton and Bakersfield: .241, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 348 ABs, 21 doubles, 3 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 20. Originally acquired: Signed as international free agent (Venezuela) in 2009. Comment: Once considered one of the organization’s top-10 prospects, his stock has taken a free-fall. He makes this list based on talent and talent alone. His stats have been dreadful the last two years. But we have to keep in mind he’s still going to be just 20 when this coming season begins. There’s still plenty of time for him. I don’t like the reports that he’s lazy and aloof though. So much for the talk a few years ago about Rodriguez and Juan Duran being the cornerstones of the Reds’ minor league system. Both of those high-priced international signings have been busts to this point.

18.  Jon Moscot – RHP – Combined 2012 numbers with AZL Reds and Billings: 0-2, 2.63 ERA, 27.1 IP, 19 H, 6 BB, 26 K, 12 games, 11 starts (10 games, 10 starts at Billings). Age by 2013 opener: 21. Originally acquired: Fourth-round of 2012 draft (No. 142 overall). Comment: Not a hard-thrower, but gets the job done. That was his reputation in college and he continued it during his brief pro stint last summer. Likely to begin the 2013 in the rotation at Dayton.

19.  Seth Mejias-Brean – 3B – 2012 numbers at Billings: .313 BA, 8 HR, 40 RBIs, 6 SB, .925 OPS, 179 ABs, 12 doubles, 2 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 22. Originally acquired: Eighth-round of 2012 draft (No. 262 overall). Comment: Helped lead his Arizona team to a College World Series championship, and then proceeded to tear it up at the professional ranks upon joining Billings. Will likely begin the 2013 season as Dayton’s third-bagger and I’ll definitely be keeping a close eye on him.

20.  Jonathan Reynoso – CF – 2012 numbers with AZL Reds: .311 BA, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 30 SB (39 attempts), .739 OPS, 190 ABs, 7 doubles, 3 triples. Age by 2013 opener: 20. Originally acquired: Signed as international free agent (Dominican Republic). Comment: Definitely a free-swinger, but has a lot of potential due to his speed and moderate pop. Will likely wait it out and begin the 2013 season at Billings.

No longer a “prospect” but still wanted to mention: JJ Hoover – RHP – 2012 numbers at Triple-A Louisville: 4-0, 1.22 ERA, 37 IP, 15 H, 55 K, 12 BB, 13 saves. Major League stats: 1-0, 2.05 ERA, 30.2 IP, 17 H, 31 K, 13 BB, 1 save. Age by 2013 opener: 25. Originally acquired: In trade with Atlanta Braves in exchange for Juan Francisco in 2012. Comment: Hoover is barely past the cutoff due to the games and innings he logged last year, so he won’t be considered a rookie in 2013. However, if he were eligible, I’d put him fifth on this list. He’s that good and I still can’t believe the Reds were able to get a quality, young bullpen arm for Francisco. Hoover looks like a keeper and then some. His stats in 2012 were incredible, both in the minors and with the Reds.

Wanted to toss a quick post up for those who might have missed it: Despite there being a whopping eight head coaching vacancies filled around the NFL, none of said jobs went to Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden or defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.

This is absolutely huge because while I think Marvin Lewis is an average head coach at best, this is clearly the best staff he's assembled and I would put the tandem of Gruden/Zimmer up against any offensive/defensive coordinator duo from anywhere else in the NFL.

Gruden took some flack for the way the season ended, but it's still highly impressive what he's been able to accomplish with the youngest starting offense in the NFL the last two seasons.

And Zimmer's record speaks for itself. His defenses play fast and aggressive, and this makes two concecutive seasons they finished in the top-7 in the NFL in total defense (6th in 2012, 7th in 2011). Not coincidentally, the Bengals made the playoffs both years. In fact, they have made the playoffs in three of the five years Zimmer has been the team's DC.

We'll see how things play out this offseason in terms of free agent pickups and the draft, but 2013 is shaping up to be an excellent season for the Bengals.

Well, so much for having to deal with playing at New England in the first round of the NFL playoffs.

And no one is saying playing at Houston is easy -- the Bengals know that as well as anyone after getting waxed by the Texans in the opening round of the 2011 postseason. However, the Patriots are a better team in my opinion and I think it's a good thing for the Bengals that they'll get a chance at revenge over the Texans instead of facing off against the three-time Super Bowl champion Pats.

Everything fell into place perfectly for Cincinnati on Sunday. First, Houston lost to Indianapolis. Then, Denver and New England each won, and they each moved past the Texans -- which is a huge deal considering the top-two seeds get first-round byes. The Broncos are the No. 1 seed and the Patriots are the No. 2. So, if the Bengals beat the third-seeded Texans, they will play at Denver in the AFC semifinals.

The other two AFC playoff teams are fourth-seeded Baltimore and fifth-seeded Indianapolis who will play in the first round. Speaking of the Ravens, the Bengals beat them 23-17 in a game with a preseason feel on Sunday as both teams rested starters for much of the way. Cincinnati finishes the regular season with a 10-6 record and goes into the playoffs with a mountain of momentum as Marvin Lewis' crew have won seven of their last eight games. I'm sure when the Bengals were sitting at 3-5 we were all expecting they'd finish 10-6. Nope.

The good news continued for the Bengals on Sunday as the Oakland Raiders lost, capping their season at 4-12. That ties for the third-worst record in the NFL with the Eagles and Lions, meaning the second-round pick the Raiders owe the Bengals in the 2013 draft will be somewhere in the range of No. 35-37 overall. That's basically like a late first-round pick. It's still amazing the Bengals were able to get a first-round pick (which turned out to be cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick) and an early-second in exchange for Carson Palmer. Thanks, Oaktown. 

Still no word on exactly when the Bengals will play either Saturday or Sunday, but that news will be coming down the pike soon. Can the Bengals get the first playoff win of the Lewis era? They'll be underdogs and rightfully so, but there's no question they'd rather be playing Houston than New England. And not just because of the revenge factor. 

UPDATE (10:32 p.m.): The Bengals and Texans will literally kick-off the NFL playoffs once again this season. They have the first game of the postseason as the two teams are slated to face off in Houston at 4:30 p.m. (ET) on Saturday.

The Cincinnati Bengals have made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 30 years and that should be the main story. And it is. But just barely.

It’s simply hard to get over the mind-blowing decisions of head coach Marvin Lewis during the Bengals’ 13-10 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday which allowed Cincinnati to clinch a wildcard berth at 9-6. (This week’s game against visiting Baltimore means nothing for the Bengals. They are locked into the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs.)

In the improbable win at Heinz Field, the Bengals jumped out to a 7-0 lead courtesy of a pick-6 from Leon Hall (yes, Leon Hall has now made two huge plays in consecutive games; something crazy is going on this season). They increased their lead to 10-0, and then the Steelers got on the board on a 60-yard TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown to make the count 10-7 Bengals at halftime.

And somewhere in the locker room, Marvin Lewis lost his mind.

In the third quarter, with the score still 10-7, the Bengals were facing a 4^th-and-22 from Pittsburgh’s 33-yard line. Obviously, the only two choices there are to attempt a 50-yard field goal, or punt. Not in Marvin Lewis World. Lewis decided to go for it. On fourth-and-22! And while it almost worked – A.J. Green nearly stayed in bounds on a deep pass from Andy Dalton – it was still the height of stupidity.

But Lewis didn’t want any part of trying a 50-yard-field goal in Heinz Field where the longest FG in stadium history is 52 yards. Good point.

Oh wait, in the fourth quarter, with the Bengals facing a 4^th-and-11 from the Steelers’ 39 and the score now knotted at 10, Lewis decided attempting a 56-yard field goal was the best option. He thinks a 50-yarder is too long, but not a 56-yarder. And the Bengals would have "only" needed to gain 11 yards for the first down when they instead decided to attempt the 56-yarder, compared to needing 22 yards when they passed up the 50-yarder. Lewis is a walking unintentional stand-up comedy act. Josh Brown’s attempt fell about 30 yards short (alright more like 5) and the Steelers were almost in field goal range themselves when they took possession of the ball.

Fortunately for the Bengals, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin – whose stock is falling faster than Facebook’s – nearly trumped Lewis by having his kicker attempt a 54-yarder. Scott Suisham’s kick only fell a yard or two short and the Bengals were back in business.

But they couldn’t take advantage and had to punt the ball down to Pittsburgh’s 11 where we were certainly headed for overtime.

Until Roethlisberger – clearly inspired by the stupidity he had witnessed out of his own coach and especially out of Lewis – decides to gamble from his own side of the field and throw his second game-losing interception in as many weeks.

Actually, it wouldn’t have been a game-losing pick if not for a great passing play from Dalton-to-Green on a corner route for 21 yards which put Brown in good position for the game-winning 43-yard field goal.

You can come up for air now.

Anyway, kudos to the Bengals’ players and most of the coaches for making the playoffs. For many Bengal fans, this will be your first time seeing your team in the postseason in back-to-back years. And let’s not even think about the fact that the first-round opponent is likely the Patriots in New England. Doesn’t even need to cross our mind. I won’t even write about it. These last four sentences obviously don’t count.

Anyway, back to our favorite, decision-making-challenged head coach for a moment. Marvin Lewis needs someone in the press box – preferably someone who scored double-digits on their ACT – to alert him when he’s about to do something incredibly stupid.

Then Lewis has the audacity to come in the postgame press conference on Sunday and pretend as if he’s this uber-aggressive coach and that’s just the way he operates. Listen to this quote from Bengals.com:

“I made decisions to try to win the game today,” Lewis said. “It kind of backfired on me a little bit. I tell them all the time we’re not backing down. We’re going to keep coaching and playing aggressively. I can’t do that and then put my tail between my legs. We’ve got to be aggressive.”

To Lewis’s credit, he did say that his team “bailed him out.” However, that was the very minimum of what he could say after utter coaching blunders that nearly cost his team a chance at sealing up a spot in the playoffs.

And who is he trying to kid with this “aggressive” BS? He’s one of the most-conservative coaches in the NFL. Well, except when it comes to using his challenge flag at the wrong time. He’s quite liberal in that department. Er, I mean, “aggressive.”

There are many times when Lewis has chances to be aggressive in games, but takes the passive approach. So, let’s not confuse what we saw on Sunday with aggression. It was flat stupidity.

Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden make up the best defensive/offensive coordinator tandem the Bengals have ever had. But the pisser for Bengal fans is that Cincy will probably eventually lose both of them to head coaching positions … and will be stuck with just Lewis.

Atkins: Strictly A Sack Diet

The amazing season for Geno Atkins reached its climax against the Steelers when the third-year defensive tackle racked up 2.5 sacks, giving him 13 on the season. Thirteen sacks for a D-tackle? That's astonishing. Especially for a former fourth-round pick (out of the Bengals unofficially AAA affiliate of course, Georgia). The Bengals lead the NFL with 47 sacks and Michael Johnson is second on the team with 9.5 sacks.

Both Atkins and Johnson will be restricted free agents this offseason. The Bengals are well under the salary cap and have plenty of money available to extend both players. But has Mike Brown really turned over a new leaf? Does he even comprehend the value of Atkins? Let's hope Brown doesn't go the cheapskate route. He needs to take a page from the Reds' playbook and get all of his young studs signed long-term. 

If we were doing the “confidence points” thing that is popular in college bowl pools – from 1-10 with 10 being the most confident I could possibly be about the Bengals beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh this Sunday … I would go with a 3.5. I don’t think it’s some insurmountable challenge – the 2012 Steelers are just not very good – but they’ll probably use their Jedi mind tricks over the Bengals and beat them as usual. However, the Bengals have some things going for them – like one of the best defensive lines in the NFL (more on that later) – and a win wouldn’t completely shock me. So, I’m going with a 3.5 for my confidence points for now.

Interestingly, that is also the point spread of this game in which Cincinnati can clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win. The spread actually opened at 4.5 points in favor of Pittsburgh, but the money is going the Bengals’ way. Intriguing, indeed.

Hopefully my instinct is off on this one because it would not only be nice to make the playoffs for the third time in four years, it would be sweet to do it at Heinz Field in front of the Pittsburgh faithful.

About That D-Line

How good is the Bengals’ defensive front? Well, this pretty much sums it up: From everything I’ve gathers, the coaches think very highly of second-round pick Devon Still and third-rounder Brandon Thompson – both defensive tackles – but they have been inactive the last several weeks because there simply isn’t room for them in the rotation right now. The Bengals carry nine defensive linemen and there is only space for seven to suit up on game days. So, you have a second-round pick and a third-round pick, both who the coaches like, who can't even see the field because of the quality depth.

The Magnificent Seven includes third-year DT Geno Atkins – who is the second-best player on the entire team in my opinion, behind only wide receiver/freak A.J. Green. (Both former Georgia players as well, which is the case with half the Bengals’ roster. Alright, “only” six players on the active roster hail from UGA.) Atkins might be the best pass-rushing D-tackle in the NFL and has racked up 10.5 sacks this season. He made the Pro Bowl last year, will so again this year and is set for a huge payday this offseason. And the former fourth-round pick (what a steal) is a restricted free agent after this year, so I’m confident he’ll be back in Cincinnati.

Fourth-year DE Michael Johnson, a former third-round pick, is having himself a career-year with 8.5 sacks.

The rest of the D-line includes DT Domata Peko, DE Carlos Dunlap, DE Wallace Gilberry, DE Robert Geathers and DT Pat Sims. Gilberry is a fifth-year pro that the Bengals plucked off the waiver wire and he has five sacks for the season. After a slow start, Dunlap has played extremely well of late and has 4.5 sacks on the year. Peko is not a guy that is going to put up big stats – which can be said for a lot of good DT’s – but he’s been his usual steady self. Geathers is versatile enough to slide down to tackle on passing downs and the veteran has three sacks on the season.

If there is a better D-line in the NFL from top-to-bottom, I’d love to see it. I’m talking about literally from 1-9. The defensive line is the clear strength of the Bengals’ entire team this season. The group is the biggest reason Cincinnati heads to Pittsburgh with an 8-6 record and a chance to taste the  postseason once again.

By the way, if the Bengals win this Sunday and the Ravens lose to the Giants, the Bengals will host the Ravens for the AFC North championship on Dec. 30. I’ll admit I never thought the Bengals would be in this position this season. I thought they’d take a small step backward and finish 8-8. But it’s been fun being wrong. (Well, let’s hope I’m wrong; still a chance they could finish 8-8 of course.)

Also, I’ll be the one in Pittsburgh with my Bengals’ face paint on, likely shirtless.

Hell naw. It’s called the TV in the man cave and that’s exactly where I’ll be to watch this one. Who Freakin’ Dey!

Is it possible to play poorly through almost an entire game on the road in the NFL, be losing at halftime and still emerge with a comfortable 34-13 victory?

Of course it is, when your opponent is the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles.

That’s who the Bengals were thankfully up against on Thursday night and Cincinnati came away with a crucial win that puts them at 8-6 on the season and keeps them in the thick of the playoff hunt.

In fact, if the Steelers lose at the Cowboys this Sunday, the Bengals can clinch a playoff birth with a win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh next week.

But back to this wacky win over the Eagles tonight in a game unlike anything I’ve ever seen. And I’m a football junkie.

Here’s an interesting stat for you: Entering tonight’s game, Bengals’ head coach Marvin Lewis was 16-57 when trailing at halftime. Sixteen and 57! Well, you can go ahead and move that up to 17-57, baby.

Andy Dalton was erratic with his throws (13-for-27 for 127 yards) Kevin Huber had by far his worst night of the season (net average of 34 yards on five punts), the Bengals racked up stupid penalties (11 for 94 yards!) and lost two turnovers.

However, if Cincy had a full house, Philly did them far better with a royal flush. And a flush was needed after the 4-10 Eagles took a complete dump at Lincoln Financial Field.

Other than the second quarter, the Eagles’ entire night was utter debauchery. They finished with a whopping five turnovers, plenty of penalties of their own (nine for 76 yards) and had a punt blocked when Bengals’ running back Boom Herron pushed his blocker back into the punter on what was a great play from the rookie from Ohio State. Herron also had a deflected punt last week in the heartbreaking 20-19 loss against the Cowboys in his NFL debut. Not a bad start for the sixth-rounder.

As for the game against the Eagles, it completely changed on Leon Hall’s interception in the third quarter with Philadelphia leading 13-10. Hall was in great position deep in coverage and picked off Nick Foles’ badly underthrown ball. Then Hall made a great 44-yard return, which set up the Bengals’ go-ahead touchdown. It was all Cincinnati from there.

Also, I’m happy to say I was wrong about BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He did not look good early in the season to say the least, but has been very impressive since October. After his 25-carry for 106 yards and one touchdown performance against the Eagles, Green-Ellis has amassed 1,080 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and six TDs on the season. His 3-year, $12-million signing turned out to be a pretty shrewd move by the Bengals during the offseason. Wait, did I just compliment the front office? Yep, sure did. The Mayans might be on to something; brace yourself.

Speaking of impressive stats, they don’t get much better than the numbers of A.J. “I Can’t Believe This Guy Actually Plays For Our Team” Green. How good are his numbers? Try 85 catches for 1,208 yards (14.2 yards per catch) and 11 touchdowns on for size. If you have him on your fantasy team (I don’t – not in either of my money leagues) you’re a happy person this year. I’m just happy he’s on the Bengals. It’s easy to make the argument he’s the best wide receiver in the NFL, which is an extremely bold statement when you consider how good Calvin Johnson is. Not to mention Brandon Marshall and a handful of others. But Green has everything you would want in a wideout and more.

Anyway, despite Dallas’ bullshit, I mean, gutsy win over the Bengals last week, now Who Dey-ers are full-fledged Cowboys fans this weekend. Again, the equations are getting pretty simple at this point, even for a simpleton like myself. A Cowboys win this Sunday over the Steelers, and a Bengals win over the Steelers next Sunday means the Bengals will be playoff bound for the second consecutive season and third time in four years.

Who knows if it will happen, but just the fact that the Bengals have put themselves in this position has made this a fun season. I predicted they would be 8-8 this year. Let’s sure as hell hope I’m wrong because that would obviously mean losing the final two games (they host Baltimore the final game of the regular season on Dec. 30).

I’ve never been crazy about Lewis as a head coach, but it’s a bottom line business and somehow he’s getting the job done. In a related story, he needs to take Andy Reid out for dinner to thank him for that early Christmas present tonight. What a collapse by the Eagles. But after the Bengals gave away a game they seemingly had wrapped up against the Cowboys last week, they’ll take the win tonight and not apologize one bit for it.

According to multiple media outlets, the deal sending Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald to the Cincinnati Reds for Didi Gregorius and Drew Stubbs is now official.

We won't know for sure for a long time, but this appears to be a coup for Reds general manager Walt Jocketty, who has been very active early this offseason.

First the Reds locked up relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton to a 3-year, $21 million deal.

Then Jocketty and Co. inked LF Ryan Ludwick to a 2-year, $15 million contract.

And now the trade that no one saw coming before today. There was a lot of chatter about the Reds perhaps "renting" free agent CF Michael Bourn for a year, but no one brought up Choo and I can see why. Choo was a RF with the Indians (except for some action in CF in 2009) and the Reds already have one of the best RF's in the game in Jay Bruce. Also, any thoughts of Choo playing LF were erased when Ludwick was re-signed.

However, Choo is a good defensive outfielder and I think he can handle playing CF for a season, especially when you consider the fact that he's played the position before at the MLB level. Stubbs is an overrated defensive outfielder in my book. Yes, he's extremely fast, but that's about it. He's very poor on balls hit right in front of him. Granted, that's a tough play for outfielders, but the great ones make those plays. Stubbs almost always pulls up on balls hit in front of him, even when it looks like he has a good chance to make the catch. He's also not good near the wall. So, while everyone knows Stubbs is a dreadful offensive player, he somehow gets more credit than he deserves defensively.

Getting Donald in this deal is also good for the Reds because he will be an upgrade over Wilson Valdez as the team's backup middle infielder.

Other than signing a backup third baseman (Jack Hannahan has been mentioned) and a few other minor moves, the Reds are likely done doing anything of note this offseason. Then again, maybe Jocketty has one more trick up his sleeve. What a job he's done since taking over and Cincinnati once again has the makings of a playoff team.